Israel waits on US to settle ‘unfinished business’ with Iran
Israel Waits on US to Settle 'Unfinished Business' with Iran: The Clock Is Ticking
The Middle East remains suspended in a state of precarious calm following the unprecedented direct military exchanges between Israel and Iran earlier this year. While the immediate escalation has subsided, the strategic reality has crystallized: Israel cannot, and perhaps will not, finalize its confrontation with Tehran without decisive backing from its superpower ally. The focus has now shifted entirely to Washington, where Jerusalem believes the 'unfinished business'—defined primarily by Iran's advanced nuclear program and pervasive regional proxy networks—must finally be addressed.
I recall speaking with a senior defense analyst in Tel Aviv just days after the initial Iranian drone swarm. His frustration was palpable. "The rules of engagement have changed," he said, adjusting his glasses. "We proved our defensive capacity, but defense is not a strategy. We took the tactical win, but the strategic threat remains—and that threat is rooted in Tehran's impunity, guaranteed only by its nuclear threshold. That is where America must step in. Our security hinges on whether Washington is ready to close this chapter, not just manage it." This sentiment perfectly encapsulates the anxiety gripping the Israeli political establishment today.
For Israel, the concept of 'unfinished business' is not merely rhetorical; it is an existential measurement. It represents the gap between current sanctions and the ultimate goal of dismantling the architecture that allows Iran to threaten regional stability, fund militant proxies, and potentially break out to a nuclear weapon capability. This wait-and-see posture, while necessary after relying on U.S. air defense cooperation, underscores a profound dilemma: how much longer can Israel afford strategic patience when Iran is enriching uranium at near-weapons grade levels?
The Escalation Calculus: Defining Jerusalem's Red Lines
The core of the 'unfinished business' lies in two interlocking threats that Israel views as unsustainable in the long term. First is the immediate, conventional danger posed by Iran's massive, missile and drone arsenal, often wielded by proxies like Hezbollah. Second, and far more critical, is the long-term, irreversible risk associated with Iran's nuclear trajectory.
Following the 2018 withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), Iran accelerated its nuclear activities significantly. Monitoring reports consistently show Iran possessing enough highly enriched uranium (HEU) to quickly produce several bombs, reducing the 'breakout time' from months to potentially mere weeks. This development is the central driver of Israeli urgency.
Israel's national security doctrine demands credible deterrence. When Tehran's ability to strike Israeli soil directly—and publicly—goes unanswered in a comprehensive manner, that deterrence is eroded. The resulting expectation is a US-led initiative, utilizing its diplomatic leverage, economic might, and military credibility, to push the situation back from the brink.
The 'unfinished business' list, as viewed from Jerusalem, includes:
- Nuclear Program Sunset: A definitive, verifiable rollback of uranium enrichment levels and the dismantling of advanced centrifuges, far beyond the scope of the original JCPOA.
- Proxy Network Disruption: Targeted actions—sanctions, covert operations, or direct pressure—to choke the financial and logistical support flowing from Tehran to groups like Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen.
- Ballistic Missile Restraint: Concrete guarantees regarding the limitation of Iran's long-range ballistic missile development, which poses a direct threat not only to Israel but also to US regional assets.
- Regional De-escalation: A sustained effort to reduce Iran's ideological and military footprint across Iraq, Syria, and the Gulf waterways, easing tensions that fuel ongoing conflict.
The reliance on the US is tactical. Israel understands that a unilateral military strike on Iran's deeply buried or dispersed nuclear facilities carries monumental risks of a full-scale regional war—a conflict only Washington has the resources to absorb or deter effectively. Therefore, the current strategic holding pattern is a calculated risk, waiting for the political window in the US to open.
Jerusalem's High Stakes: Deterrence and Strategic Patience
The current government in Israel faces intense domestic pressure to demonstrate a clear strategy against the Iranian threat, especially after the April exchanges exposed vulnerabilities and the depth of the Iranian threat matrix. The failure to deliver a crippling response to Iran's direct attack was framed, by many, as deference to Washington's wishes—a political necessity to ensure continued American partnership, but one that came at the cost of immediate deterrence.
Strategic patience, however, is running thin. Israeli defense planners view Iran's sustained military capability and ongoing funding of global terrorism as a ticking clock. The prevailing geopolitical consensus in Jerusalem is that Iran interprets diplomatic stalling as weakness and is using this time to solidify its nuclear threshold status.
Furthermore, the integration of American defensive capabilities, which were instrumental in intercepting the Iranian barrage, solidified the understanding that deep coordination is vital. While Israel possesses its own potent military capabilities, the complexity of a simultaneous confrontation across multiple fronts—Gaza, Lebanon, and potentially directly with Iran—demands a unified front supported by US intelligence, logistics, and power projection.
The core demand being quietly channeled from Jerusalem to Washington is simple: Move beyond containment and stabilization to definitive resolution. This means taking steps that make Iran's nuclear pursuit strategically impossible, rather than just technically difficult. The debate centers less on *if* the US should act, and more on *how* decisively and *how* quickly.
One source close to the diplomatic process noted that the US needs to re-establish a "credible threat of force." Sanctions alone, while punitive, have not altered Tehran's core strategic decisions. This re-establishment of deterrence is the critical piece of the 'unfinished business' puzzle that only Washington can deliver.
Washington's Tightrope Walk: Diplomacy, Sanctions, or Force?
In Washington, the situation is viewed through the lens of immense political complexity, regional fragility, and an approaching election cycle. The Biden administration is caught between satisfying a key ally's existential security demands and avoiding a third major conflict in the Middle East—a scenario that would have catastrophic global economic and political repercussions.
The US strategy to date has favored 'integrated deterrence,' combining sanctions, regional force deployment, and limited diplomatic engagement. However, this strategy is now facing intense scrutiny from Israel and Congressional critics who argue that it has merely allowed Iran to inch closer to nuclear capability while expanding its malign influence.
The key challenges for US policymakers in settling this 'unfinished business' include:
- Avoiding Regional Conflagration: Any large-scale military action against Iran risks triggering immediate, devastating retaliation against US military bases and regional allies (including Saudi Arabia and the UAE).
- The China/Russia Factor: Both powers provide significant diplomatic cover and trade routes for Iran, limiting the efficacy of maximalist sanctions strategies.
- Domestic Political Headwinds: The American public has little appetite for renewed large-scale military intervention in the Middle East.
While the administration publicly emphasizes diplomacy and economic pressure, behind closed doors, contingency planning for military options remains active. The US recognizes that its geopolitical credibility is tied to the security of Israel. If Iran successfully achieves a nuclear weapon, the entire non-proliferation architecture, and thus US global leadership, would be severely undermined.
The upcoming months are crucial. Israel understands that the window for a major US strategic shift—whether through renewed, harder-line nuclear diplomacy backed by robust military threats, or direct action—is rapidly closing, constrained by the political realities of the US electoral calendar. For now, Jerusalem is holding its breath, awaiting the American commitment to finally settle this deeply consequential 'unfinished business' with Tehran.
The stakes couldn't be higher. The stability of the Middle East, the future of the non-proliferation regime, and the very security architecture of the region depend on the outcome of this prolonged diplomatic and strategic standoff.
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