Who is truly in the race for the Calder Trophy?
Who is truly in the race for the Calder Trophy?
The 2025-26 NHL regular season has reached its final quarter, and the battle for the league's top rookie honors has become a fascinating narrative of record-breaking performances and generational talent. While dozens of rookies make their debuts each year, only a select few manage to sustain the consistency and impact required to stay in the conversation for the Calder Memorial Trophy. This year, the race has narrowed significantly, moving from a crowded field in October to a concentrated group of elite prospects who are not just participating in the NHL, but actively changing the fortunes of their respective franchises. From record-shattering defensemen on Long Island to high-octane playmakers in Montreal and Anaheim, the quality of this year's rookie class is arguably the highest the league has seen in over a decade.
Matthew Schaefer of the New York Islanders is currently the heavy favorite to win the 2026 Calder Trophy, leading a three-horse race that includes Anaheim Ducks forward Beckett Sennecke and Montreal Canadiens winger Ivan Demidov. While Sennecke leads all rookies in total points and Demidov tops the charts in assists, Schaefer’s historic goal-scoring pace for a teenage defenseman and his massive 24-minute average ice time have made him the odds-on choice for voters. Other notable mentionable candidates include Minnesota Wild goaltender Jesper Wallstedt and Canadiens blueliner Oliver Kapanen, though they remain distant outliers compared to the primary trio of Schaefer, Sennecke, and Demidov.
Matthew Schaefer: The Generational Blueliner
Matthew Schaefer has not just been the best rookie this season; he has been one of the most impactful defensemen in the entire National Hockey League. Taken first overall in the 2025 NHL Draft, the New York Islanders blueliner has exceeded even the loftiest expectations. By March 2026, Schaefer had already reached the 20-goal plateau, becoming the youngest defenseman in NHL history to achieve such a feat. His ability to jump into the play and act as a fourth forward while maintaining elite defensive gaps has transformed an Islanders team that struggled for identity a year ago.
Schaefer’s impact is best reflected in his usage. He leads all rookies in average time on ice, frequently logging over 24 minutes per game against the opposition's top scoring lines. Analysts have noted that his statistical profile mirrors those of Norris Trophy candidates, making him a "lock" in the eyes of many voters. Beyond the box score, his underlying metrics are staggering. With Schaefer on the ice at 5-on-5, the Islanders control over 60% of the goals, whereas they drop to a sub-45% share when he is on the bench. This "on-off" disparity highlights a player who isn't just a beneficiary of a good system but is the system itself.
Beckett Sennecke: Anaheim's New Power Forward
If there is anyone who can realistically challenge Schaefer’s narrative, it is Beckett Sennecke. The Anaheim Ducks forward has been a revelation, currently leading all NHL rookies in total points. Sennecke’s rise is particularly impressive given he was considered a "surprise" pick at number three in the 2024 draft. He has silenced critics by becoming the fastest rookie in Ducks history to reach the 50-point mark, surpassing the previous record held by Bobby Ryan.
Sennecke brings a rare combination of size, speed, and finishing ability. Playing on a young, revitalized Ducks squad, he has provided the physical edge and primary scoring needed to keep Anaheim at the top of the Pacific Division. His 20 goals and 31 assists are a testament to his versatility; he is just as comfortable winning a puck battle in the corner as he is sniped a puck top-shelf on the power play. While defensemen often get a "difficulty boost" in Calder voting, Sennecke’s raw production is reaching a level that is impossible to ignore.
Ivan Demidov: The Playmaking Wizard of Montreal
In Montreal, the hype surrounding Ivan Demidov has reached a fever pitch. The Russian winger, selected fifth overall in 2024, has brought an elite level of processing power and vision to the Canadiens' top six. Demidov leads all rookies in assists and primary assists, serving as the engine for Montreal's offensive resurgence. His statistics are even more impressive when adjusted for his ice time, as he frequently ranks among the league leaders in points-per-60 minutes at 5-on-5.
Demidov’s game is built on "manipulation"—using his skating and look-offs to freeze defenders and open up passing lanes that few other players can see. While he may lack the goal-scoring totals of Schaefer or the physical dominance of Sennecke, his impact on his teammates' production is undeniable. He has been a catalyst for his linemates, helping Montreal stay in the hunt for a playoff spot in a competitive Atlantic Division. For voters who value pure skill and offensive creation, Demidov remains the top choice.
Comparing the Top Three Contenders
To truly understand the gap between these players, one must look at how they stack up across various disciplines. While the Calder Trophy is often an offensive-driven award, the 2025-26 race is unique because it features an elite defenseman, an elite power forward, and an elite playmaker. The following table provides a snapshot of their performance as the season enters its final stretch.
| Statistic | Leader Among Top 3 |
|---|---|
| Total Points | Beckett Sennecke (51) |
| Total Goals | Matthew Schaefer / Beckett Sennecke (20) |
| Total Assists | Ivan Demidov (35) |
| Average Ice Time | Matthew Schaefer (24:16) |
| Expected Goals share | Matthew Schaefer (50.75%) |
The Long Shots: Wallstedt and Kapanen
While the "Big Three" have dominated the headlines, two other names have consistently appeared in the Trophy Tracker top five. Jesper Wallstedt of the Minnesota Wild has been one of the most efficient goaltenders in the league this season. With a save percentage floating around .928 and several shutouts to his name, he has kept the Wild in numerous games. However, a limited number of starts compared to the workhorse skaters has hindered his ability to climb into the top tier of candidates.
Oliver Kapanen of the Montreal Canadiens has also earned praise for his two-way reliability. Often overshadowed by his teammate Demidov, Kapanen has provided the Canadiens with essential depth scoring and penalty-killing utility. While he doesn't have the flashy point totals of the front-runners, his "plus-minus" and advanced defensive metrics suggest he will be a cornerstone player for Montreal for years to come. Unfortunately for both Wallstedt and Kapanen, the historic seasons being put up by Schaefer and Sennecke likely make the trophy unreachable this year.
Advanced Metrics and the Value of Impact
Modern NHL awards are increasingly influenced by analytics, and this is where Matthew Schaefer truly pulls away from the field. According to MoneyPuck and other tracking sites, Schaefer’s Wins Above Replacement (WAR) is not just top among rookies, but top-five among all NHL defensemen. This suggests that his value to the Islanders is equivalent to that of established stars like Cale Makar or Zach Werenski.
In contrast, while Sennecke and Demidov have excellent offensive numbers, their defensive impacts are more typical of high-end rookies—good, but not league-altering. The "Expected Goals" data shows that when Schaefer is on the ice, his team effectively suppresses high-danger chances, a rare trait for an 18-year-old defenseman. This ability to dominate both ends of the ice is likely what will tip the scales in his favor when the Professional Hockey Writers Association casts their ballots.
Historical Significance of the 2026 Class
The 2025-26 rookie class is drawing comparisons to the legendary 2005-06 class that featured Alexander Ovechkin and Sidney Crosby. Much like that era, we are seeing teenagers enter the league and immediately become the best players on their teams. Matthew Schaefer’s chase of Brian Leetch’s rookie defenseman goal record (23) is a storyline that has captivated the hockey world. If he reaches 25 goals, he will become the first rookie blueliner in history to do so.
Furthermore, the fact that Sennecke and Demidov are both on pace for 65+ points adds to the prestige of this group. In most other years, either of these forwards would be a runaway winner for the Calder. The depth of this class ensures that even those who finish second or third will likely go on to have Hall of Fame-caliber careers. For the NHL, this influx of young, marketable talent is a massive win for the league's global reach.
The Role of Betting Odds in Predicting the Winner
As of March 2026, sportsbooks have essentially called the race. Matthew Schaefer’s odds sit at a staggering -6000 at most major books, meaning a bettor would have to wager $6000 just to win $100. This reflects a consensus among experts that the award is his to lose. Ivan Demidov and Beckett Sennecke are listed in the +3300 to +3500 range, representing "value" picks only if Schaefer were to suffer a significant injury or a catastrophic slump in the final 15 games.
Betting splits show that while more individual bets have been placed on Demidov (due to the large Montreal fan base), the "sharp" money or the highest handle percentage is firmly behind Schaefer. These odds act as a real-time barometer for the award, reflecting the same sentiments found in the NHL.com Trophy Tracker polls where Schaefer has consistently received nearly all of the first-place votes.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Who is eligible for the Calder Trophy?
To be eligible, a player cannot have played more than 25 regular season games in any single preceding season, nor in six or more games in each of any two preceding regular seasons in any major professional league. Additionally, the player must be 26 years of age or younger by September 15th of their rookie season.
Who votes for the Calder Trophy?
The winner is selected by a poll of the Professional Hockey Writers Association (PHWA) at the end of the regular season. The results are announced during the NHL Awards ceremony.
Can a defenseman win the Calder?
Yes. In fact, defensemen like Cale Makar (2020), Moritz Seider (2022), and Lane Hutson (2025) have won it recently. Matthew Schaefer is currently the favorite to continue this trend of defensive dominance.
What happens if there is a tie in voting?
While extremely rare, if two players receive the exact same number of voting points, the trophy is shared. However, the point system (10-7-5-3-1) usually ensures a clear winner.
Has a goalie ever won the Calder?
Yes, 16 goaltenders have won the award. The last one to do so was Steve Mason of the Columbus Blue Jackets in 2009. Jesper Wallstedt is the top goaltending candidate in 2026 but faces stiff competition from skaters.
Conclusion
The race for the 2026 Calder Trophy has been one of the most exciting in recent memory, but as the season winds down, it has become a coronation for Matthew Schaefer. His combination of historic goal-scoring, massive ice time, and elite defensive impact has separated him from an incredibly talented field. While Beckett Sennecke and Ivan Demidov have put up numbers that would win the award in almost any other year, they are running into a truly generational performance on Long Island. Regardless of who takes home the hardware, the NHL is clearly in good hands with this latest wave of superstars ready to lead the league for the next two decades.
Who is truly in the race for the Calder Trophy?
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