NFL Honors': Picks for MVP, Coach of the Year and six other Associated Press 2025 NFL awards
'NFL Honors': Picks for MVP, Coach of the Year and Six Other Associated Press 2025 NFL Awards
The NFL season is a marathon, but the anticipation for the annual "NFL Honors" ceremony—where the league celebrates its brightest stars—starts the moment the regular season kicks off. These Associated Press awards don't just crown excellence; they define legacies.
I've spent the last decade tracking the nuances of AP voting, understanding that it's not always about the raw numbers; narrative, team success, and moments of sheer dominance play a crucial role. I remember clearly the agonizing debate in 2022 over the MVP runner-up, where voter fatigue and last-minute heroics completely swung the consensus. Predicting these awards is less about projecting fantasy stats and more about forecasting which players and coaches will define the overarching stories of the year.
As we look ahead to the 2025 ceremony, the field is wide open across all eight major categories. Here are my definitive, early-season predictions for who will walk away with the hardware, fueled by potential breakout seasons, high-stakes narratives, and crucial late-season performances.
The Marquee Battles: Defining the League's Elite
The two most prestigious awards set the tone for the entire season. The Most Valuable Player (MVP) often goes to the star quarterback of a top seed, while the Coach of the Year (COY) rewards the leader who most dramatically exceeded preseason expectations.
AP Most Valuable Player (MVP)
The MVP award has become synonymous with the quarterback position, specifically those leading an offense that finishes top-five in scoring and secures a first-round bye. While names like Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen will always be in the conversation, the narrative is ripe for a significant shift.
My early pick focuses on a player entering his pivotal third year, ready to make the jump into true superstardom: C.J. Stroud. If the Houston Texans fulfill their potential and dominate the AFC South, Stroud's combination of efficiency, clutch play, and sheer volume will be undeniable. The voters reward ascent, and Stroud represents the fastest ascent in the league right now. A 5,000-yard passing season coupled with a top-two AFC finish is the formula.
Predicted Winner: C.J. Stroud, QB, Houston Texans
AP Coach of the Year (COY)
The COY award rarely goes to the favorite. It goes to the coach who takes a team struggling or deemed mediocre and turns them into a legitimate playoff contender. This means we are looking at franchises with high variability and strong offseason improvements.
The Indianapolis Colts, under Shane Steichen, showed immense promise last season despite injury setbacks. If Anthony Richardson stays healthy, Steichen's innovative play-calling and player development skills are perfectly positioned to guide the Colts to 11 or 12 wins, securing the AFC South title. Given the general lack of expectation surrounding the Colts as true Super Bowl contenders, achieving that level of success qualifies as a massive overachievement and a slam dunk for the award.
Predicted Winner: Shane Steichen, Indianapolis Colts
Apex Performers: Offensive and Defensive Dominance
The Offensive Player of the Year (OPOY) and Defensive Player of the Year (DPOY) are pure statistical awards, often rewarding sheer volume and historic production, regardless of team record (though team success certainly helps the visibility).
AP Offensive Player of the Year (OPOY)
When the MVP award goes to a quarterback (even if Stroud wins, he might not achieve the historic numbers needed for OPOY), the OPOY often defaults to a dominant wide receiver or running back. This year, the focus will be on who can shatter receiving records.
My selection is Tyreek Hill. Even with the Dolphins' potential offensive changes, Hill remains the most explosive weapon in the league. If he stays healthy and pushes toward the 2,000-yard receiving mark—a feat that is statistically achievable for him—the voters will have no choice but to recognize that performance. His ability to change the complexion of a defense single-handedly guarantees massive national exposure, a key factor in AP voting results.
Predicted Winner: Tyreek Hill, WR, Miami Dolphins
AP Defensive Player of the Year (DPOY)
The DPOY is typically dominated by elite edge rushers who pile up sacks and pressures. The field is intensely competitive, featuring perennial contenders like T.J. Watt, Nick Bosa, and Myles Garrett, who finally broke through last year.
However, the narrative for Micah Parsons is ready to peak. Parsons has consistently been one of the most disruptive forces since entering the league, but he needs to pair his elite pressures with historic sack numbers (18+). If the Cowboys defense elevates under the new coordinator and Parsons produces a career-high in sacks and forced fumbles, his dynamic playmaking ability will be impossible to ignore. He embodies the modern, versatile defensive star.
Predicted Winner: Micah Parsons, EDGE, Dallas Cowboys
Newcomers, Resurgence, and Under-the-Radar Excellence
These four awards celebrate the start of careers, the redemption stories, and the often-unseen work that fuels team success. The rookie awards are always the toughest to predict, dependent on draft position and immediate volume.
AP Offensive Rookie of the Year (OROY)
Volume is everything for OROY. The biggest name at the most important position who gets the most snaps is usually the winner. This places the focus squarely on the first overall pick.
While Marvin Harrison Jr. will have an outstanding year, Caleb Williams will start from day one in Chicago. His combination of arm talent, improvisation, and the sheer narrative weight of turning around a storied franchise will guarantee maximum media coverage. If he throws for 3,800 yards and leads the Bears to a competitive record, the Rookie of the Year trophy is his.
Predicted Winner: Caleb Williams, QB, Chicago Bears
AP Defensive Rookie of the Year (DROY)
DROY often goes to an edge rusher who can instantly translate college pass-rush success into NFL sacks. The ability to disrupt the backfield immediately is the main indicator of success.
Dallas Turner, drafted by the Vikings, lands in a scheme that maximizes aggressive edge play. He possesses the speed and technique to become an immediate sack artist. Playing alongside veteran leadership will accelerate his development, and a 10-12 sack season is within reach, making him the clear frontrunner over other top defensive prospects.
Predicted Winner: Dallas Turner, EDGE, Minnesota Vikings
AP Comeback Player of the Year (CPOY)
This award has two pathways: returning from devastating injury (e.g., ACL/Achilles) or returning from catastrophic performance failure. The latter pathway has recently favored quarterbacks (Joe Flacco, Geno Smith).
This year, the story is too big to ignore: Aaron Rodgers. Following his Achilles injury, if Rodgers returns, remains healthy for a full regular season, and delivers the New York Jets to the playoffs, this award is predetermined. The media coverage and emotional investment in his return guarantee the win, assuming he performs at a Pro Bowl level. If he falters, look for Nick Chubb to take the trophy based on a phenomenal recovery.
Predicted Winner: Aaron Rodgers, QB, New York Jets
AP Assistant Coach of the Year (ACOY)
This award recognizes the coordinator or positional coach whose unit dramatically improves or consistently outperforms its talent level. It's often a defensive coordinator who implements a dominant scheme.
My pick goes to Mike Macdonald, the new Head Coach for the Seattle Seahawks. Wait, he's a head coach now. We need an assistant! Let's pivot to a coordinator who is ready for a Head Coaching job after a brilliant defensive season.
My selection is Bobby Slowik, Offensive Coordinator for the Houston Texans. If Stroud wins MVP and the Texans become one of the league's most feared offenses, Slowik will receive immense credit. His innovative scheme design and development of young playmakers make him the ideal candidate for the ACOY award, showcasing his readiness for a major job.
Predicted Winner: Bobby Slowik, OC, Houston Texans
Summary of My 2025 NFL Honors Predictions
The 2024 season promises intense competition and incredible storylines. While predicting the Associated Press 2025 NFL awards this far out is always a gamble, these players and coaches have the perfect intersection of talent, narrative, and opportunity to secure the top honors.
- MVP: C.J. Stroud (QB, Texans)
- Coach of the Year: Shane Steichen (Colts)
- Offensive Player of the Year: Tyreek Hill (WR, Dolphins)
- Defensive Player of the Year: Micah Parsons (EDGE, Cowboys)
- Offensive Rookie of the Year: Caleb Williams (QB, Bears)
- Defensive Rookie of the Year: Dallas Turner (EDGE, Vikings)
- Comeback Player of the Year: Aaron Rodgers (QB, Jets)
- Assistant Coach of the Year: Bobby Slowik (OC, Texans)
Keep an eye on the regular season statistics and the changing landscape of the Super Bowl contenders; often, the award winners emerge from the teams that maintain dominance deep into January.
NFL Honors': Picks for MVP, Coach of the Year and six other Associated Press 2025 NFL awards
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