As we return to a pre-WW2 order, the middle powers face a challenge
As We Return to a Pre-WW2 Order, the Middle Powers Face a Challenge of Existential Proportions
The global system is undergoing a fundamental transformation. For nearly eight decades, the world operated under the relative stability, if imperfect, umbrella of the post-1945 architecture. That era is definitively over. We are witnessing a clear shift toward a dynamic reminiscent of the 1930s—a period marked by aggressive sphere-of-influence politics, trade weaponization, and the rapid erosion of international consensus. This unsettling return to a great power rivalry model poses the ultimate test for the globe's middle powers.
I recall a conversation last year with a senior diplomat from a key South East Asian nation. He described their daily reality not as navigating diplomacy, but as managing a "geopolitical minefield." Every decision—from purchasing 5G infrastructure to signing a major trade deal—is now viewed through the zero-sum lens of Washington and Beijing. For these nations, maintaining genuine non-alignment or maximizing national interest without incurring the wrath of a superpower has become the most complex strategic challenge of their generation.
The core issue is that the space for independent maneuvering is rapidly shrinking. In a world defined by intensifying great power competition, nations that are not superpowers are increasingly being forced to choose sides, potentially sacrificing decades of economic integration for geopolitical alignment. This is the new reality of the emerging pre-WW2 order.
The Erosion of the Post-1945 Consensus: Multipolarity Without Rules
The concept of "middle powers" flourished in the context of the rules-based international order established after World War II. Institutions like the WTO, the UN Security Council, and various treaties provided a common ground and leverage points, allowing mid-sized countries (think Australia, Canada, South Korea, Brazil, or Turkey) to exert influence disproportionate to their military size. This golden age of multilateralism gave them security and economic predictability.
Today, that consensus is dissolving. The shift is not merely from unipolarity (US dominance) to multipolarity; it is a shift to a multipolarity where the core tenets of sovereignty and non-interference are selectively applied. This lack of predictable norms is devastating for the middle powers, who rely heavily on international law for their protection.
The primary engines driving this decay are clear:
- Weaponization of Interdependence: Economic links, once viewed as guarantees of peace, are now tools of coercion. Supply chain resilience and diversification are prioritized over efficiency, often at the expense of smaller economies.
- Institutional Paralysis: Key global governance bodies, particularly the UN Security Council, are paralyzed by vetoes and divergent interests among the major powers, rendering them ineffective in resolving critical conflicts or managing global systemic risks.
- Rise of Sphere-of-Influence Doctrines: Major powers are increasingly asserting regional dominance, demanding loyalty from neighbors, and challenging established maritime and territorial boundaries—a direct throwback to pre-1939 geopolitical doctrines.
This fragmentation forces middle powers to confront military threats and economic instability largely on their own, or through temporary, highly conditional alliances. The safety net that defined the Cold War and post-Cold War eras has been pulled away.
Caught in the Crossfire: Economic and Security Coercion
The defining dilemma for any middle power today is the balance between their security needs and their economic necessity. Most middle powers have deep security ties with the Western bloc (often the US) but rely overwhelmingly on the opposing bloc (often China) for trade, investment, and commodity exports. This dependency creates a critical strategic vulnerability.
The geopolitical squeeze operates through two primary levers:
1. Diplomatic and Security Pressure
In the security realm, neutrality is increasingly viewed by major powers as disloyalty. If a middle power hosts specific military installations or participates in regional defense pacts aimed at balancing a rival power, it invites immediate diplomatic and sometimes military pressure. Nations like the Philippines or Poland exemplify the constant, high-stakes trade-offs required to bolster defense while managing neighborly aggression.
Furthermore, internal democratic processes in middle powers are often targeted. Disinformation campaigns and political interference, seeking to destabilize governments that lean too heavily towards one major power, are now standard operating procedure. This undermines domestic consensus and weakens their negotiating position internationally.
2. Economic Coercion and Supply Chain Vulnerability
The most immediate and painful pressure point is economic. We have seen instances where nations attempting to take a principled stand on human rights or sovereignty issues face instant trade blockades, punitive tariffs, or targeted boycotts—often without recourse to the defunct WTO dispute settlement mechanism.
Consider the vulnerability of countries specializing in key inputs, like rare earths or advanced microchips. Their economic fate is inextricably tied to the strategic calculations of Moscow, Washington, and Beijing. Diversifying supply chains is expensive and time-consuming, meaning middle powers must accept higher short-term economic risks simply to reduce long-term strategic reliance.
The challenge is truly acute:
- Should they commit massive resources to military modernization (the security choice) and risk alienating their largest trading partner?
- Should they prioritize deep economic integration (the prosperity choice) and risk strategic subordination or invasion?
There is no easy answer, only calculated risk management in a highly volatile geopolitical climate.
The Path Forward: Defining Strategic Autonomy Through Mini-Lateralism
Survival in this emerging pre-WW2 environment requires middle powers to fundamentally rethink their foreign policy frameworks. They cannot rely on the old promises of global institutions; they must build their own resilience. The key strategy for navigating this new order is defining and achieving genuine strategic autonomy.
Strategic autonomy does not mean isolation or complete non-alignment. Rather, it is the ability to choose partners based on specific issues—a highly flexible, issue-specific hedging strategy that avoids full institutional commitment to either great power bloc.
This necessary adaptation manifests primarily through the creation of agile, 'mini-lateral' groupings. Since global multilateralism is stalling, regional and functionally specific alliances are becoming vital lifelines.
Successful strategies for middle powers include:
- Focusing on Specific Niches: Leveraging expertise in critical areas (e.g., green technology, advanced manufacturing, specific mineral extraction) to make themselves indispensable nodes in global networks, thus increasing their diplomatic leverage.
- Strengthening Regional Blocs: Investing heavily in existing regional organizations (ASEAN, ECOWAS, the EU's middle-power states) to amplify collective bargaining power against external pressures. Regional unity becomes the shield against external fragmentation.
- Maintaining Open Lines of Communication: Unlike the Cold War, avoiding complete ideological alignment is crucial. Middle powers must retain high-level diplomatic channels with all major players, ensuring they are always perceived as reliable intermediaries rather than committed antagonists.
- Investing in Cognitive Resilience: Actively countering foreign disinformation and ensuring a robust, independent domestic media and academic environment to allow for clear, objective assessment of international risks, free from external influence.
As the geopolitical pendulum swings back toward a raw power dynamic, the stakes for middle powers are unprecedentedly high. Their ability to survive this era intact—preserving both their sovereignty and prosperity—will determine whether the emerging order descends into full-scale conflict or stabilizes into a manageable, albeit riskier, system of strategic coexistence. For these nations, the time for decisive, independent action is now.
As we return to a pre-WW2 order, the middle powers face a challenge
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