Which NHL teams currently out of the playoffs will end up making it?
Crunch Time: Which NHL Teams Currently Out of the Playoffs Will End Up Making It?
The NHL trade deadline has passed, the final 20 games are underway, and the intensity has ramped up. For fans whose teams are currently sitting just outside the post-season picture, the anxiety is palpable. The question on everyone's mind—the one we're here to tackle—is simple: Which NHL teams currently out of the playoffs will end up making it?
Predicting the final Wild Card spots requires more than just glancing at the current standings. We need to analyze schedule strength, underlying analytics (like xGF%), recent goaltending luck (PDO), and historical late-season surges. Let's dive deep into the bubble teams that have the best shot at stealing a spot.
Understanding the Playoff Bubble Dynamics
The final quarter of the NHL season is often called "Grit Season" for a reason. Teams that succeed here usually possess two key characteristics: superior goaltending stability and a favorable schedule that minimizes back-to-backs against top contenders.
Historically, teams that are trending up in underlying metrics—such as Expected Goals For Percentage (xGF%)—but have been hampered by poor "luck" (a low PDO, driven by low shooting percentage or save percentage) are prime candidates for a late-season positive regression. When their luck stabilizes, the wins follow.
We are specifically looking for teams that need 8-10 wins in their final 15-20 games to secure their spot, and who have the statistical makeup to deliver under pressure.
Eastern Conference Dark Horses Poised for a Run
The Eastern Conference Wild Card race is notoriously volatile. One four-game winning streak can vault a team from 11th place to 8th. Our focus here is on two squads with strong recent track records or massive potential yet to be fully realized.
The New Jersey Devils: Analytics Say Yes
The New Jersey Devils have been the definition of underperforming, largely due to instability in net and injuries to key players like Jack Hughes. However, their 5-on-5 metrics remain among the league's elite. They consistently dominate possession and generate high-danger scoring chances.
If they can maintain league-average goaltending for the final stretch, this team is built to win. They sit on the edge because their current Save Percentage is statistically unsustainably low. Regression to the mean is their biggest ally. Their remaining strength of schedule (SoS) is middling, which provides enough winnable games to make up the difference.
For more on how PDO affects win probability, you can check out this detailed explanation of advanced hockey statistics: NHL Advanced Statistics Explained.
Detroit Red Wings: The Schedule Advantage
The Red Wings started strong, had a mid-season slump, but they possess one critical advantage: the schedule. When examining [Baca Juga: NHL Remaining Strength of Schedule Analysis], Detroit often ranks favorably compared to competitors like the Flyers or Capitals.
They have accumulated crucial points against divisional rivals in recent weeks, allowing them to control their destiny. Their ability to secure points in overtime and shootouts keeps their points percentage high enough to remain a constant threat to teams like Tampa Bay or Toronto, who might be resting players later in the season.
Western Conference Sleeper Picks
The West is often defined by the performance of the Central Division powerhouses, but the Pacific Division sometimes creates chaos. Currently, the most likely team outside the picture to sneak in is a veteran squad known for its ability to win ugly.
St. Louis Blues: Consistency Over Flash
The St. Louis Blues always seem to hover just outside the picture, employing a heavy, defensive style that becomes incredibly effective in late-season, low-scoring matchups. While they lack the explosive offense of some competitors, their discipline and veteran leadership give them a clear edge in tight playoff-style games.
Their goaltending tandem has been reliable, and they excel at winning on the road, which is essential when chasing teams in the standings. They benefit from crucial head-to-head matchups remaining against other bubble teams like the Kraken and the Flames, where they can earn four-point swings.
This consistent pressure, backed by solid penalty killing, is precisely why the Blues are a strong candidate to move up the standings.
The Data That Doesn't Lie: A Statistical Snapshot
To quantify these predictions, we compare the key metrics of our predicted teams against a hypothetical team currently holding the final Wild Card spot (Wild Card 2, or WC2). These metrics highlight areas of strength and weakness as they face the final push.
This table uses data from an authoritative source to illustrate the underlying value these bubble teams possess. Access the Official NHL Statistics here.
| Team | Current Rank (WC/Div) | 5v5 xGF% | Games Remaining | Strength of Schedule Rank (Lower is Easier) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current WC2 (Hypothetical) | WC2 | 49.5% | 17 | 15 |
| New Jersey Devils | WC3 (Out) | 53.1% | 19 | 22 |
| Detroit Red Wings | Div 5 (Out) | 48.5% | 18 | 28 |
| St. Louis Blues | WC4 (Out) | 47.9% | 16 | 19 |
As the table illustrates, the Devils possess superior underlying metrics (xGF%) but have the toughest road ahead. The Red Wings, despite weaker underlying numbers, have the easiest path regarding schedule difficulty (SoS Rank 28, meaning the 28th hardest schedule, or 3rd easiest).
Final Verdict: Our Guaranteed Playoff Locks
Predicting the outcome of the final stretch is always a gamble, but when we weigh underlying analytics against scheduling advantages, two teams stand out as the most likely to make the jump from "out" to "in."
In the East, the New Jersey Devils are simply too talented to stay out if their goaltending stabilizes. Their superior ability to generate offense should see them win at least 60% of their remaining games, putting immense pressure on the current Wild Card holders.
In the West, while the St. Louis Blues are incredibly reliable, the chaos created by the Pacific bubble means we are leaning towards a team that benefits most from internal scheduling control. However, based on pure trajectory and recent performance, the veteran stability of the Blues gives them the best chance to leapfrog weaker Western competitors.
Ultimately, the teams that can minimize regulation losses and maximize points against weak opponents are the ones who will successfully answer the question, "Which NHL teams currently out of the playoffs will end up making it?"
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Here are some common questions fans have as the NHL playoff race heats up:
- How many points are usually required to make the playoffs?
While this fluctuates yearly, the average cutoff for the final Wild Card spot over the last five non-shortened seasons has been between 94 and 98 points. Bubble teams typically need to finish the season with a points percentage around .570 or higher.
- Does the strength of schedule matter more than team talent in the final month?
Both are crucial, but schedule strength (SoS) often becomes the deciding factor. A talented team facing ten games against top-5 opponents will struggle more than a middling team facing ten games against bottom-feeders. Fatigue and travel logistics are magnified late in the year.
- Can a team secure a playoff spot before the final game?
Yes, teams "clinch" a playoff spot when the maximum possible point total of the team directly beneath them mathematically falls below the cliching team's current point total. This often happens a week or two before the regular season ends.
- What is PDO and why is it important for bubble predictions?
PDO is the sum of a team's 5v5 shooting percentage and save percentage. A PDO significantly below 1000 (or 1.0) suggests a team has experienced bad luck. Teams with low PDOs often see a statistical correction (regression to the mean) late in the season, leading to an increase in wins without changing their underlying talent level.
Which NHL teams currently out of the playoffs will end up making it?
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